Maybe the “sky” isn’t falling?!

A chicken and a pig walk into a grocery store…………..Nah, I’ll save that story for another time. : )

I get asked at least once every day, often multiple times: “Andy, how are things going in real estate, REALLY?! Is it as bad as it sounds?” Truthfully, in my opinion: No!

I’m seeing offers being written on homes – almost every day.

I’m meeting with sellers who realize 2007 prices are gone – but that they can still sell their home, and do.

I’m helping investors find incredible values – on all types of properties.

I’m marketing new construction homes for Builders – and receiving offers every weekend.

I’m working with Banks to offer 3.75% interest rates to First Time Home Buyers – who are loving it!

Yeah, I’d say things are “looking up”.

Did you read the article in last week’s Seattle Times entitled: “Pending sales of single-family homes in King County surged in April”? The article mentions some of the good news:

  • King County Pending sales were up 25% in April over March.
  • Snohomish County Pending sales were up 28% in April over March.

One factor to keep in mind, though, is that many of those pending sales are distressed homes or bank-owned homes. On those properties, buyers are typically securing exceptional prices. While there is more “activity” in the market, home prices are not yet rising. In fact King County sales prices were down about 15% from 2008 compared to 2007, while Snohomish County sales prices were down about 18% from 2008 compared to 2007.   These are sobering numbers – but now that it’s more commonly understood, many real estate decisions are more reality based than speculative (i.e., what price to list a home).

Even though we’re not yet seeing home prices increase – in some cases, we are seeing multiple offers. And we’re seeing Home Buyers getting off the fence and making offers, because they’re afraid they may miss the chance for a great deal!

My conclusion: It’s hard to know when the “bottom” has finally hit – but you’ll definitely know once you’re looking up!

In my opinion – there are indications that our real estate world may be starting to change for the better. Maybe the sky isn’t falling.

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I had a client the other day ask me about the real estate market and waiting for the bottom.  In this case he was hoping for real estate prices to come down so he could buy at a lower price.  I told him that was a great idea, but it is really tough to time the market and that many professionals get that type of thing wrong, so I would be wary of trying.  In his case he was looking for a $200,000 house, and a 5% price reduction which represented a $10,000 difference in the cost of the house.  We agreed that was a lot of money.  However, I told him that if the bottom of the market was already here, and we just didn’t recognize it yet, waiting longer could cost him a bunch more.

I explained that once the housing market bottoms and we see the market for homes stabilize, demand will increase and we will probably see a significant amount of buyers since plenty of people have had the same thoughts about waiting for the market to bottom.  Because of that we could see prices rise quickly.  This would actually not be the most costly part of the market shift. As things get better, the government will no longer have the incentive to keep interest rates low, and they will stop sinking hundreds of billions of dollars into the Mortgage Backed Securities market (MBS-these are the assets that are made when banks pool the mortgages that you and I pay every month)

Once the government stops funneling money into these MBS markets, interest rates will rise, and even if they only go back to levels just before the government stepped in that would represent a 1.5% increase in interest rates from where we are now.  FYI, that initial interest rate drop from the mid 6% range down to the mid to high 4% range happened in less than 1 week in Dec. 2008.

So back to my client and his $10,000 price drop.  We decided that $10,000 was a lot of money.  However, if the interest rate on his purchase goes up 1.5% from where we are now to when he decides to make the purchase (assuming he can still get the house for the $200,000 list price) he could expect about a $64,000 increase in the interest cost over the life of the loan.  Now that is a lot of money!

If the state of the economy is teaching us anything, it is that you can’t just look at short-term benefits.  Sure, it is great to get what you want today, but you also have to keep an eye on what it will cost you tomorrow.

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Warning: if Accounting isn’t your language of choice, your eyes may be about to glaze over. However, as with many things arcane, mark-to-market accounting  may be having a huge impact on the world we live in right now, and according to many critics, could well be one of the root causes of the current financial crisis. Mark-to-Market accounting is a reporting rule that requires financial institutions to value their current investments at today’s value, even if they have no intention of selling those assets now, or anytime in the foreseeable future.

As an example, if you were to consider the current value of your own 401k, which most of us are already doing with some significant trepidation, you’re  likely down about 50% from the highs of 2 years ago.  However, you’re able to do the calculations and realize that so long as you don’t sell today, you’ve still got a chance to recover on the long haul. Mark to Market doesn’t allow banks that option, but instead forces them to report the values on their holdings at todays value, as if they were going to sell everything today.

Because banks are not allowed to lend every dime they have access to, but must hold a portion back to cover their loans (see fractional lending), some argue that an accounting rule that ties asset value to current valuations, rather than allowing them to take a longterm view, much as we would, places artificial restrictions on their ability to recover from market fluctuations, and is at least partially responsible for the current liquidity problems in the world financial system.

The other side of the argument says that banks, whose actions with risky assets have largely brought this crisis on themselves, should not be allowed to price their asset valuations at anything other than current market value. Allowing them to do so essentially is seen by some analysts as rewarding the irresponsible behavior that started the initial cascade, and passing the risk on to the taxpayers.

Ultimately, the question of mark to market accounting will be coming to congress in the not so distant future. Legislation being what it is, we’ll have to see what comes of this, and whether our current administration decides to address it as an accounting problem, or a consumer protection issue.

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sharks

“Can’t you feel ‘em circlin’ honey?
Can’t you feel ‘em swimmin’ around?
You got fins to the left, fins to the right,
and you’re the only bait in town.” – Jimmy Buffet, ‘Fins’

In an economy turned topsy turvy, with which-end-is-up news coming out daily, and a seemingly endless parade of graft, corruption, greed, and new stories daily turning up parasitic relationships where there should clearly be walls of propriety, it’s hard to know which way to run. 

As many homebuyers know, buying a home can be a baffling task- and that’s assuming everything goes well. Obviously, as millions of people now know, it doesn’t always end in the American Dream. With a purchase as life-altering as your first home, it’s absolutely essential that you place your trust in an agent who deserves it. Unfortunately, the desire to ‘get a deal’ often overrides the common sense priority of ‘know whom you’re dealing with’.

In the state of Washington, every agent is required to present to a new client, preferably at the first meeting, a pamphlet labeled, “The Law of Real Estate Agency”. It is a 4 page 8.5″ x 11″ (double-sided) masterpiece that lays out the various options for real estate representation, and the duties of an agent in each of the given scenarios. The choices are: Buyer’s Agent, Seller’s Agent, and Dual Agent. As an exclusive representative of either buyer or seller, my duties are;

a) to exercise reasonable skill and care,

b) to deal honestly and in good faith,

c) to present all written offers and other communications in a timely manner,

d) to disclose all known material facts,

e) to account in a timely manner for all moneys,

f) to provide a pamphlet on the law of real estate agency to all parties to whom the licensee renders services, and finally,

g) to disclose in writing, to all parties, prior to rendering brokerage services, whom the agent represents in the given transaction. 

Seems fairly clear so far- If I’m representing either the buyer or seller, we all know which team I’m on, and the rules of the game are laid out. 

However, Washington state, along with several others, recognizes Dual Agency. This is where the lines get blurry. Look at the list of items for an agent on either side, and consider what a & b might look like for a dual agent. What is ‘Reasonable skill and  care’, when the reality is that this deal is only going to benefit the agent?  And how do you deal ‘fairly and honestly’ with two opposing parties?

Think for a minute how you’d feel walking into a courtroom to face the judge. Your lawyer, the guy who’s going to stand up and argue your defense, and whom you’re paying money- probably lots of it- is already in the room. He’s standing beside the guy who’s accusing you of a crime. And they’re talking- about you. Clearly their conversation concerns some aspect of the case, and you don’t know what they just said. A few minutes go by, and the lawyer walks to your side of the room, smiles, shakes your hand, and sits down. He leans in close, whispers a few lawyer comments in your ear, then gets up abruptly to go chat with your accuser again, who is understandably confused by the switching alliances. This is the essential fallacy of dual agency- one person can’t faithfully execute the will of two masters- especially when they’re on opposing sides! Now, assume the outcome doesn’t turn out how you’d hoped- you paid for your lawyer, after all. Who are you going to blame? He said he was a dual agent. You knew up front that he was in this for the money. In fact, his only true loyalty was to his wallet. Did you really expect representation, too? 

But lawyers can’t practice dual agency. Only real estate agents. If lawyers can’t then why should it be OK for the representative of parties to a major financial transaction? That’s an excellent question- I’m glad you asked. Unfortunately, I don’t have a good answer. Several states have recognized that dual agency is a bad idea- the state of New York’s legal counsel even published a memorandum warning of the inherent dangers of dual agency. If you’re a buyer, it’s tempting, but clearly this is a tangle of conflicting interests. 

However, I know of agents who specifically make an effort to ‘double-end’ deals. And I’ve known more than one prospective buyer who proposed just such an arrangement to a listing agent, in an attempt to score a potentially better ‘deal’.  The reality is that this opens up the agent to a wide range of accusations, from accepting bribes, to huge liabilities should the transaction go sour. And there’s no getting around the stain of the ‘appearance of impropriety’ that comes from being involved in a shady deal. 

Do  you really believe it’s possible for one person to maintain the confidentiality requirements of two parties to a transaction? Could you negotiate a deal between two parties, knowing all the details, without divulging any confidentialities to either. Keep in mind that the agent, in representing the seller, already has a written contract that legally obligates him to ‘due diligence’ and loyalty to the seller. He can’t sign a second ‘buyer’s agency’ agreement without violating the first contract. So your representative is ‘representing’ you in name only- his true loyalties having been exposed by his willingness to blur the lines. 

In the interest of avoiding this legal and moral quagmire, our team has adopted a strict ‘No Dual Agency’ policy as one of our founding directives. When making the largest purchase of your life, there should be no doubt who’s on your side.

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In every industry, there are always little rivalries; the kind that keep managers, owners, and statisticians awake at night. When you’re on the receiving end of the latest corporate dig, or you’ve paid your dues as the “New Kid on the Block”, the ribbing can occasionally get a little personal. And of course some personalities just don’t deal with defeat too well.

Which is why it has been so amusing to watch the latest blogflares going up as Keller Williams announced at the annual “Family Reunion” in Austin, TX this week, that they’ve taken some of the air out of RE/Max’s balloon. Surpassing RE/Max’s national agent count ( to take the spot as the nation’s 3rd largest real estate company) is especially gratifying to us here at Pickett Street, as we joined the Keller family in early 2008, after 3 years with a local RE/Max agency. 

To be fair, RE/Max was very good to us, and we cherish the relationships we made there. However, we have learned that Keller’s culture is more suitable to our way of business: we love the supportive, cooperative, family & community-oriented, values-based team atmosphere.

Another significant piece of the business decision puzzle for us was their progressive stance on technology. As most know, the internet plays a significant role in the modern home search, and younger buyers are typically early adopters. Recognizing this, we were excited to align ourselves with a company whose philosophy supported our own. This was recently recognized on the national scene by Swanpoel Trends, who declared that Keller Williams ranked  3rd on the list of Top 10 Real Estate Trendsetters for 2009.

Ultimately, we are in business. Being a “for-profit’” enterprise, we’ve learned that the Keller model of  “lead with revenue” is especially critical in today’s business environment. Despite their growth, Keller has shrewdly managed to get to the #3 slot without incurring any debt. In the world we now inhabit, that’s almost unheard of. An enviable position for any business, and one we’re happy to be a part of.

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dollarstretch2

The National Association of REALTORS (NAR) have to be glad that this week is over. It had to be tortuous – thinking on Tuesday that Congress was on it’s way to approving a $15,000 tax credit for those that bought a home in 2009 – then watching the House of Representative strike it completely from the Economic Stimulus package on Wednesday. The NAR’s response to the unexpected change was measured, saying only that nothing was yet decided, and that changes would be made before President Obama signed the bill into law. The week ended with a narrow passage of the Economic Stimulus Package on Friday, and (together now, with a sigh of relief) the NAR’s efforts were rewarded with an honorary mention in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.

I preface with all of that to say this: THANK GOD! Not because I think that the measure will be a salvation to the industry, but because their are several reasons why the act passed yesterday is better than the $7,500 tax credit passed last year and the $15,000 tax credit initially supported by the NAR. Here are the top three reasons why:

(1) The same benefit for all that use it. The initial $15,000 tax credit had so many conditions on it that we had to have a CPA come to our office to explain who could use it, when they could use it, and how much they could use it. The $15,000 tax credit would not have been refundable in any way – it would have only eliminated the tax liability over a maximum of two years, and the full benefit was only received if you owed $15,000 when you filed your taxes (or owed $7,500 in two consecutive years). For many first-time homebuyers, who might have little or no tax liability, no benefit was received. The measure awaiting the President’s approval gives everyone that’s eligible access to $8,000, regardless of their total tax liability.

(2) It will mean money in the pockets of homebuyers. As I explained in #1, under the $15,000 tax credit plan the benefit was in NOT paying a tax bill owed, but it didn’t actually GIVE money in the form of a refund. The $7,500 tax credit passed last year was different: if a homebuyer owed $2,500 in taxes, the credit would mean that the homebuyer would get a refund of $5,000. As long as they’re eligible, this translates into a very real benefit for all homebuyers, regardless of their tax eligibility.

(3) Homebuyers don’t have to pay it back. The $7,500 tax credit passed last year required that at least $500 be repaid each year (after 2010) until the $7,500 was repaid – essentially it was a 0% interest 15-year loan. The best part of the $15,000 tax credit lives on in the passage of the Economic Stimulus Package – the $8,000 that homebuyers receive does not have to be repaid.

I’m a little over-tired, I’m not a CPA, and I didn’t sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night, so I’m open to thoughts and corrections from others. What I do know is that I get to meet with two homebuyers this morning and give them 3 very good reasons why they need to buy a home before December 1st. And given how often this measure has changed in the last week, I’m going to recommend that they do it sooner than that.

Like maybe this week.

(First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit PDF)

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